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The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Estimation and Interpretation

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Author Info
Seppälä, Juha (Bank of Finland Research)
Viertiö, Petri (Bank of Finland Research)
Abstract

This document reports the currently used term structure estimation method at the Bank of Finland and discusses interpretation of the results it generates. We start by introducing two widely used term structure estimation methods: the Cubic Spline Function method and the Nelson-Siegel approach. We compare their results, paying special attention to the smoothness of forward interest rates and distribution of pricing errors. Next, we introduce the Bank of Finland's method, commenting on its strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we discuss interpretation of the term structure of interest rates with emphasis on the inflation expectations and the role of the time-varying risk premia.

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File URL: http://www.bof.fi/NR/rdonlyres/90354DAE-72B8-4FCD-B45B-1611AB1A5180/0/DP_19_1996.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 19/1996.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 05 Sep 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:1996_019

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: term structure of interest rates; cubic splines; Nelson-Siegel; forward interest rates; relative value; inflation expectations; time-varying risk premia;

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  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Efectos de los cambios en la tasa de intervención del Banco de la República sobre la estructura a plazo," Borradores de Economia 424, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonomalised Laguerre Polynomials: An Intertemporally Consistent Approach with an Economic Interpretation," Working Papers in Economics 03/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2002. "Estimación de la Estructura a Plazo de las Tasas de Interés en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002594, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Juha Ilmari Seppala, 2000. "The Term Structure of Real Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence from the U.K. Index-Linked Bonds," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0245, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  6. Diego Mauricio Vásuez & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Estimación de la Estructura a Plazos de las Tasas de Interés en Colombia por Medio del Método de Funciones B-Spline Cúbicas," Borradores de Economia 210, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonormalised Laguerre Polynomials: A Consistent Cross-Sectional and Inter-Temporal Approach," Working Papers in Economics 03/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andraž, Grum, 2006. "Razvitost slovenskega trga dolžniškega kapitala in ocenitev krivulje donosnosti
    [The development of the Slovenian government debt market and estimation of the yiled curve]    ," MPRA Paper 4876, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Jamieson Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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