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Monetary policy regimes in CIS economies and their ability to provide price and financial stability

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  • Dabrowski , Marek

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

Achieving price stability has been a serious challenge for CIS countries. In the first half of the 1990s, they experienced very high inflation or hyperinflation, which had originated in the perestroika period and following the dissolution of the ruble area. After the introduction of new currencies and stabilization programs in the mid-1990s, inflation moderated to two-digit levels. However, for lack of sufficient fiscal policy support, this partial progress did not succeed in preventing the financial crisis of 1998/99. The economic boom of the 2000s allowed for a return to macroeconomic stability with stronger fiscal fundamentals, but nevertheless proved insufficient to withstand the shock from the global financial crisis of 2008/09. The paper analyses the evolution monetary policy regimes of in the CIS countries over the decade of the 2000s and early 2010s and is based on the publicly available cross-country statistics and other information provided by the IMF. The paper compares financial openness in these economies both de jure and de facto. These findings will be tested against the empirical data on exchange rate movements and changes in central banks’ international reserves. The paper concludes with a discussion on practical choices which CIS countries have in respect of their future monetary policy regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 8/2013.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 02 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2013_008

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Keywords: monetary policy; CIS; financial openness; inflation;

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References

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  1. Giorgi Bakradze & Andreas Billmeier, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Georgia," IMF Working Papers 07/193, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Korhonen, Iikka & Wachtel, Paul, 2005. "A note on exchange rate pass-through in CIS countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C.Shambaugh & Alan M.Taylor, 2003. "The Trilemma in History:Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies,and Capital Mobility," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 94, Netherlands Central Bank.
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  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," NBER Working Papers 6965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Marek Dabrowski, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on Emerging Market Economies in Europe and the CIS: Evidence from mid-2010," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 411, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  11. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234 Elsevier.
  12. Marek Dabrowski, 1995. "The Reasons of the Collapse of the Ruble Zone," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0058, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  13. Alexander Chubrik, 2012. "The new old choice for economic policymakers in Belarus," CASE Network E-briefs 08, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  14. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Theoretical Issues Pertaining to Monetary Unions," NBER Working Papers 7393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
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