What determines stock market behavior in Russia and other emerging countries?
AbstractWe empirically test the dependence of the Russian stock market on the world stock market and world oil prices in the period 1997:10–2012:02. We also consider three Eastern European stock markets (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary), as well as two markets outside Europe (Turkey and South Africa). We apply a rolling regression to identify periods when oil prices or stock indices in the US and Japan were important. Surprisingly, oil prices are not significant for the Russian stock market after 2006. A TGARCH-BEKK model is employed to assess the degree of correlation between markets, taking into account the global market stochastic trend. We find that correlation between markets increased between 2000 and 2012. Growth was especially high in Eastern European markets during 2004–2006, which is likely connected with the EU accession of these countries in 2004.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 4/2013.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 18 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
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Russian stock market; oil; financial market integration; stock market returns; news; emerging markets; transition economies;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2013-03-23 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-ENE-2013-03-23 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2013-03-23 (Transition Economics)
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