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What determines stock market behavior in Russia and other emerging countries?

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  • Korhonen, Iikka

    ()
    (BOFIT)

  • Peresetsky , Anatoly

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

We empirically test the dependence of the Russian stock market on the world stock market and world oil prices in the period 1997:10–2012:02. We also consider three Eastern European stock markets (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary), as well as two markets outside Europe (Turkey and South Africa). We apply a rolling regression to identify periods when oil prices or stock indices in the US and Japan were important. Surprisingly, oil prices are not significant for the Russian stock market after 2006. A TGARCH-BEKK model is employed to assess the degree of correlation between markets, taking into account the global market stochastic trend. We find that correlation between markets increased between 2000 and 2012. Growth was especially high in Eastern European markets during 2004–2006, which is likely connected with the EU accession of these countries in 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 4/2013.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 18 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2013_004

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Related research

Keywords: Russian stock market; oil; financial market integration; stock market returns; news; emerging markets; transition economies;

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References

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  2. Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2005. "A ten-year retrospection of the behavior of Russian stock returns," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Grigoryev, Ruslan & Jaffry, Shabbar & Marchenko, German, 2012. "The role of the timeline in Granger causality test in the presence of daily data non-synchronism," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 27(3), pages 3-19.
  4. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets: A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Eduard Baumöhl & Tomáš Výrost, 2010. "Stock Market Integration: Granger Causality Testing with Respect to Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(5), pages 414-425, December.
  6. Bernd Hayo & Ali Kutan, 2004. "The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and Global Market Developments on Russian Financial Markets," Finance 0403002, EconWPA.
  7. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
  8. Grigoryev, Ruslan & Jaffry, Shabbar & Marchenko, German, 2012. "Investigation of the consequences of ignoring daily data non-synchronism in cross-market linkages: BRIC and developed countries," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 26(2), pages 92-112.
  9. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What determines the behavior of the Russian stock market," MPRA Paper 41508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  11. Peresetsky, Anatoly & Ivanter, Alexander, 2000. " Interaction of the Russian Financial Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(1-2), pages 103-40.
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Cited by:
  1. Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky , Anatoly, 2013. "Extracting global stochastic trend from non-synchronous data," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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