Monetary policy and housing prices; a case study of Chinese experience in 1999-2010
AbstractHow do monetary policy variables affect housing prices? In this paper we apply a non-linear modelling approach, the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (NAR-MAX), to investigate determinants of housing prices in China over the period 1999:01 to 2010:06. The NARMAX approach has an advantage over prevailing methods in that it automatically selects linear and non-linear forms of variables and the numbers of corresponding lags according to statistical properties. Both linear and non-linear estimation results identify a number of key monetary and price variables, including most notably mortgage rate, producer price, broad money supply and real effective exchange rate. Meanwhile, some key real economic variables such as income are not independently significant. Our findings should be helpful in understanding the formation of housing prices in China and will provide some valuable insights on how to use monetary policies to manage asset prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 17/2011.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 22 Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
More information through EDIRC
housing prices; monetary policy; NARMAX; China;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-08-29 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2011-08-29 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-08-29 (Transition Economics)
- NEP-URE-2011-08-29 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- SATO, Hiroshi, 2006. "Housing inequality and housing poverty in urban China in the late 1990s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 37-50.
- Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2002.
"House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
- Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010.
"Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, 09.
- Holly, Sean & Jones, Natasha, 1997. "House prices since the 1940s: Cointegration, demography and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 549-565, October.
- Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003.
"Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence,"
University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2002. "Financial Liberalisation and the Sensitivity of House Prices to Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 538, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
- Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary policy, asset prices, and uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 37-42, January.
- Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002.
"The impact of monetary policy on asset prices,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2007.
"Monetary policy and the U.S. housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions,"
0705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
- Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
- Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
NBER Working Papers
5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009.
"Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
- Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp337, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
- Gimeno, Ricardo & Martínez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.
- Semmler, Willi & Zhang, Wenlang, 2007. "Asset price volatility and monetary policy rules: A dynamic model and empirical evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 411-430, May.
- Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010.
"The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
- Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Real House Price Growth In South Africa: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200905, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- XING, Yuqing, 2006.
"Why is China so attractive for FDI? The role of exchange rates,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 198-209.
- Yuqing Xing, 2004. "Why is China so Attractive for FDI The Role of Exchange Rates," Working Papers EMS_2004_04, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Liu Hongyu & Yun W. Park & Zheng Siqi, 2002. "The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-60.
- Bjørnland , Hilde & Leitemo, Kai, 2005.
"Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market,"
Research Discussion Papers
17/2005, Bank of Finland.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo, 2008. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Working Paper 2008/04, Norges Bank.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Memorandum 12/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Liang, Qi & Cao, Hua, 2007. "Property prices and bank lending in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 63-75, February.
- Nada Mora, 2008. "The Effect of Bank Credit on Asset Prices: Evidence from the Japanese Real Estate Boom during the 1980s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 57-87, 02.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Päivi Määttä).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.