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What drives urban consumption in mainland China? The role of property price dynamics

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  • Chen, Yu-Fu

    ()
    (BOFIT)

  • Funke, Michael

    (BOFIT)

  • Mehrotra, Aaron

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset for the period 1998Q1 – 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 13/2011.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_013

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Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: consumption; house prices; China; panel data;

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References

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  1. Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2008. "Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," NBER Working Papers 14546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Slacalek, Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Working Paper Series 1117, European Central Bank.
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  4. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1335, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  7. Andreas Lehnert, 2004. "Housing, consumption, and credit constraints," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. John D. Benjamin & Peter Chinloy & G. Donald Jud, 2004. "Real Estate Versus Financial Wealth in Consumption," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 341-354, November.
  9. Jonathan Skinner, 1989. "Housing Wealth and Aggregate Saving," NBER Working Papers 2842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  17. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2011. "What drives urban consumption in mainland China? The role of property price dynamics," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  18. Jie Gan, 2010. "Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel of Households," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2229-2267, June.
  19. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
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  25. Koivu, Tuuli, 2010. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Working Paper Series 1240, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Bussière, Matthieu & Kalantzis, Yannick & Lafarguette, Romain & Sicular, Terry, 2013. "Understanding household savings in China: the role of the housing market and borrowing constraints," MPRA Paper 44611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages R39-R48, February.
  3. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2011. "What Drives Urban Consumption In Mainland China? The Role Of Property Price Dynamics," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 255, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.

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