Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress - Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events
AbstractThis paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic events and evaluate them by taking into account policy makers’ preferences between false alarms and missing signals. Our results highlight the importance of considering jointly various indicators in a multivariate framework. We find that taking into account jointly domestic and global macro-financial vulnerabilities greatly improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out-of-sample performance in predicting the last financial crisis. Finally, our model would have issued an early warning signal for the United States in 2006Q2, 5 quarters before the emergence of money markets tensions in August 2007.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 2/2011.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 05 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
early warning indicators; asset price booms and busts; financial stress; macro-prudential policies;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-04-16 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DCM-2011-04-16 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-FOR-2011-04-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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