Comparing China’s GDP Statistics with Coincident Indicators
AbstractWe use factor analysis to summarize information from various macroeconomic indicators, effectively producing coincident indicators for the Chinese economy. We compare the dynamics of the estimated factors with GDP, and compare our factors with other published indicators for the Chinese economy. The indicator data match the GDP dynamics well and discrepancies are very short. The periods of discrepancies seem to correspond to shocks affecting the growth process as neither autoregressive models for GDP itself nor various coincident indicators are able to forecast them satisfactorily.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 1/2011.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 18 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
More information through EDIRC
factor models; principal component; GDP; China;
Other versions of this item:
- Mehrotra, Aaron & Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2011. "Comparing China's GDP statistics with coincident indicators," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 406-411, September.
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-03-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-TRA-2011-03-26 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Xinhua He, 2010. "Noteworthy Discrepancies in China's GDP Accounting," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 88-102.
- Gregory Chow, 2006. "Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 396-414, June.
- Holz, Carsten A, 2013. "Chinese statistics: classification systems and data sources," MPRA Paper 43869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Holz, Carsten, 2013. "The Quality of China's GDP Statistics," MPRA Paper 51864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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