Currency substitution in the economies of Central Asia: How much does it cost?
AbstractUnderdeveloped financial markets and periods of high inflation have stimulated dollarization and currency substitution in the economies of Central Asia. Some authors argue that the latter can pose serious obstacles for the effective conduct of monetary policy and can affect households’ welfare.This study uses a model with money-in-the-utility function to estimate the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign currencies in three economies of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. Utility derived from holding money balances is represented by a CES function with money holdings denominated in two currencies. The residents are assumed to diversify their monetary holdings due to instability of the domestic currency. The steady state analysis reveals that though currency substitution decreases governments’ seigniorage revenue, holding foreign money can be welfare generating if domestic currency depreciates vis-à-vis the currencies in which households’ foreign balances holdings are denominated. De-dollarization can only be achieved through further macroeconomic stabilization that will bring price and exchange rate stability. Financial sector development will also decrease currency substitution through the provision of reliable financial instruments and the gaining of public confidence.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 14/2010.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 26 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
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currency substitution; dollarization; monetary policy; seigniorage; welfare; transition;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-09-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CIS-2010-09-03 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-MAC-2010-09-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-09-03 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2010-09-03 (Transition Economics)
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- Stix, Helmut & Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris, 2007. "Are Euro Cash Holdings in Central and Eastern Europe Driven by Experience or Anticipation? Results from an OeNB Survey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
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