Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China
AbstractWe use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 22/2008.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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More information through EDIRC
inflation forecasting; business surveys; China;
Other versions of this item:
- Juuso Kaaresvirta & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 263-271, November.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-01-24 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CNA-2009-01-24 (China)
- NEP-FOR-2009-01-24 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-01-24 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2009-01-24 (Transition Economics)
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