We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices.
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number
22/2008.
Length: 17 pages Date of creation: 13 Jan 2009 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_022
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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