In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consumer economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (Russia and Canada here) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock, leading to a price increase of 50%, boosts Russian GDP by some 12%. However, oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of oil shocks, as economic activity in their export countries suffers. For oil consumers, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output drops in response to an oil price shock, while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes. Finally, indirect effects are also detected for oil-consumer countries. Those countries trading more with oil producers receive indirect benefits via higher demand from the oil producing countries. In general the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found in China, USA and Japan while European countries seem to fare quite well during recent positive oil-price shocks.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number
16/2008.
Length: 40 pages Date of creation: 21 Nov 2008 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_016
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland Phone: + 358 10 831 2268 Fax: + 358 10 831 2294 Email: Web page: http://www.bof.fi/bofit/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Tiina Saajasto).
Find related papers by JEL classification: C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: