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Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil

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  • Korhonen, Iikka

    ()
    (BOFIT)

  • Ledyaeva, Svetlana

    (BOFIT)

Abstract

In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consumer economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (Russia and Canada here) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock, leading to a price increase of 50%, boosts Russian GDP by some 12%. However, oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of oil shocks, as economic activity in their export countries suffers. For oil consumers, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output drops in response to an oil price shock, while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes. Finally, indirect effects are also detected for oil-consumer countries. Those countries trading more with oil producers receive indirect benefits via higher demand from the oil producing countries. In general the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found in China, USA and Japan while European countries seem to fare quite well during recent positive oil-price shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 16/2008.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_016

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Keywords: oil; macroeconomic fluctuations; trade linkages; Russia;

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  1. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
  2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Pereira, Rui M., 2014. "On the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the Portuguese case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 248-261.
  2. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the impact of oil prices on oil-rich emerging economies in the Pacific Rim," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 328-339.
  3. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "Cross-Country Differences in the Effects of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3306, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Valter Di Giacinto, 2011. "Foreign trade, home linkages and the spatial transmission of economic fluctuations in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 827, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim & Richard Saba, 2014. "How Does the Oil Price Shock Affect Consumers?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-10, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  6. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valérie Mignon & Audrey Sallenave, 2014. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-14, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  8. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
  9. Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets - Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  10. Elisabeth Beckmann & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade: Pouring Oil on Troubled Waters?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 9(1), pages 31-49, April.
  11. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2012. "Fossil Fuel Prices and the Economic and Budgetary Challenges of a Small Energy-Importing Economy: The Case of Portugal," Working Papers 115, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  12. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  13. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Hsu, Kai-Wei, 2012. "Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade?," MPRA Paper 36182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2009. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade," Discussion Papers in Economics 10963, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  15. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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