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Forecasting Inflation in China

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Author Info
Mehrotra , Aaron () (BOFIT)
Sánchez-Fung, José R. () (BOFIT)

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Abstract

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 2/2008.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_002

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Related research
Keywords: inflation forecasting; data-rich environment; principal components; China;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2006. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," IMF Working Papers 06/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stefan Gerlach & Janet Kong, 2005. "Money and Inflation in China," Working Papers 0504, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

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