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An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises

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  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesýs

    ()
    (BOFIT)

  • Slacik, Tomas

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants. Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis happening after one week but in less than a month. We give empirical evidence that the indicator performs well for two important currency crises in Eastern Europe: the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/dp0407.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 4/2007.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 02 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2007_004

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: currency crisis; term structure of interest rates; transition economies;

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References

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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  5. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
  6. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," Working Paper Series rwp06-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  8. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  9. Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2001. "An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 1-68.
  10. Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "Will the Bretton Woods 2 regime unravel soon? the risk of a hard landing in 2005-2006," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  11. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-18.
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Cited by:
  1. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Jacob Gyntelberg & Andrea Tesei, 2009. "The Asian crisis: what did local stock markets expect?," Working Papers 0902, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 135-149.

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