An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises
AbstractWe propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants. Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis happening after one week but in less than a month. We give empirical evidence that the indicator performs well for two important currency crises in Eastern Europe: the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 4/2007.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 02 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
More information through EDIRC
currency crisis; term structure of interest rates; transition economies;
Other versions of this item:
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, 2010. "An almost-too-late warning mechanism for currency crises," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(1), pages 123-141, 01.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, 2007. "An "Almost-Too-Late" Warning Mechanism For Currency Crises," Working Papers 2007-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2007-03-10 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2007-03-10 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-03-10 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2007-03-10 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger, 2006.
"Global imbalances or bad accounting? The missing dark matter in the wealth of nations,"
Business School Working Papers
globalimbal, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," Working Paper Series rwp06-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2001. "An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 1-68.
- Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
- Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-18.
- Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Begg, David, 1998.
"Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
- Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "Will the Bretton Woods 2 regime unravel soon? the risk of a hard landing in 2005-2006," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 135-149.
- Jacob Gyntelberg & Alicia Garcia Herrero & Andrea Tesei, 2008.
"The Asian crisis: what did local stock markets expect?,"
BIS Working Papers
261, Bank for International Settlements.
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Jacob Gyntelberg & Andrea Tesei, 2009. "The Asian crisis: what did local stock markets expect?," Working Papers 0902, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Päivi Määttä).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.