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Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy: Theory and evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001-2003

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  • Charemza , Wojciech W.

    (National Bank of Poland and University of Leicester, UK)

  • Makarov, Svetlana

    (European University at St. Petersburg, Russia and National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

The paper proposes a new indicator of expected real effects of a policy aimed at controlling inflation. The indicator, called real effect of inflation targeting (REIT), involves the comparison of expected and output-neutral inflation. It is shown that it can be derived from a simple two-dimensional vector autoregressive model of inflation and output gap. The microdynamics of such model are explained in terms of the foundations of Taylor-type staggered wage contracts. It is assumed that the monetary authority has some discretion regarding the timing of monetary actions. Here REIT can be used to set the optimal times for such actions, if the control of output is regarded as a secondary policy target. A simulation experiment illustrates the rationale of such a device for timing monetary measures. The REIT has been used by the Polish Monetary Policy Council since 2001 in it's inflation targeting and is thought to have contributed to a substantial decline in Polish inflation in 2003 and to an increase in output growth in 2004. A similar indicator computed for Russia as a means of monitoring monetary policy rather than as an active tool confirms that active expansionary policy in 2002 and 2003 might have contributed to Russian economic growth in 2004 and 2005, whereas similar policy measures for 2004 are likely to prove ineffective.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 20/2005.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 30 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2005_020

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," NBER Working Papers 9375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arrazola, Maria & de Hevia, Jose, 2002. "An alternative measure of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-73, March.
  3. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Karl Whelan, 2007. "Staggered Price Contracts And Inflation Persistence: Some General Results," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 111-145, 02.
  5. Engin Kara & Huw Dixon, 2005. "Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalised Taylor Economy: How Loner Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 82, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  6. Tomasz Lyziak, 2002. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Poland.The strenght and delays," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 26, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  7. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  8. Rudiger Ahrend, 2004. "Accounting for Russia's Post-Crisis Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 404, OECD Publishing.
  9. Gert Wehinger, 2000. "Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 83-107, March.
  10. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Sticky price models of the business cycle: can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem?," Staff Report 217, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
  14. Ascari, Guido, 2000. "Optimising Agents, Staggered Wages and Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 664-86, July.
  15. Christine Gartner & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries," Working Papers 33, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  17. Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  18. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
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  1. Wojciech Charemza
    by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 11:59:58
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Cited by:
  1. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Making the most of High Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/01, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.

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