Effects of WTO membership on income distribution and labour movement in China – A CGE analysis
AbstractUsing a CGE model (PRCGEM) updated to 2002, the paper explores how WTO membership could affect earnings in 40 industries across 31 regions (and 8 regional blocks) of China during the period 2002–2007. Taking into account labour movement between regions within China, the direct contribution of WTO membership to overall economic growth and development is predicted to be small, with a rise in real GDP of only 6.48% short term and 5.6% long term. However, structural economic change and the WTO shock should increase regional output, especially in the established coastal economies. Regional labour movement is found to increase 69.2% at the completion of economic structural reforms. A slight decrease in the Gini coefficient for income inequality is also anticipated.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 18/2005.
Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: 30 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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applied CGE modelling; China; WTO; labour movement; inequality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
- R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
- R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-10-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2006-10-07 (China)
- NEP-GEO-2006-10-07 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-SEA-2006-10-07 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TRA-2006-10-07 (Transition Economics)
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