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Growth expectations and banking system fragility in developing economies

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Author Info
Proto, Eugenio () (University of Warwick, Department of Economics)

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Abstract

The likelihood of a banking crisis appears to be higher in fast-developing countries. An explanation is provided in a Diamond and Dybvig framework, where banks are vehicles of consumption-smoothing, offering insurance against shocks to the consumption path of consumers. The theoretical model shows that the higher consumer growth expectations, the higher the optimal level of illiquidity insurance — even if it implies higher exposure bank runs. Empirical evidence supports this result and suggests that the effect of deposit interest rates on the probability of crisis is stronger after a period of high, uniterrupted growth. Policies of providing bail-outs or deposit insurance are demonstrated to be efficient even when they increase the fragility of the banking system.

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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 13/2005.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 07 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2005_013

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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  2. Edward J. Green & Ping Lin, 2000. "Diamond and Dybvig's classic theory of financial intermediation : what's missing?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-13. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1994. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth," Economics Working Papers 98, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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  7. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  13. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2003. "Economic growth, liquidity, and bank runs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 220-245, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2001. "The Life-Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 3-22, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Gary Gorton & Andrew Winton, 2002. "Financial Intermediation," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-28, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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