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Equilibrium exchange rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?

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  • Égert, Balázs

    ()
    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey. A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is conducted, combined with a careful analysis of country-specific factors. For Russia, a first look is taken at the Dutch Disease phenomenon as a possible driving force behind equilibrium exchange rates. A unified framework including productivity and net foreign assets completed with a set control variables such as openness, public debt and public expenditures is used to compute total real misalignment bands.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 3/2005.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2005_003

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson; Dutch Disease; Bulgaria; Croatia; Romania; Russia; Ukraine; Turkey;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp781, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Stephan Barisitz, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements and Monetary Policy in Southeastern Europe and Turkey: Some Stylized Facts," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  3. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2013. "Non-price competitiveness of exports from emerging countries," Working Paper Series 1612, European Central Bank.
  4. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Trunin, Pavel & Knyazev, Dmitriy & Kudykina, Ekaterina, 2010. "Анализ Факторов Динамики Обменного Курса Рубля
    [Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy]
    ," MPRA Paper 33944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Aziz Hayat & Bahodir Ganiev & Xueli Tang, 2012. "Expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements," Financial Econometics Series 2012_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  7. Dülger, Fikret & Lopcu, Kenan & Burgaç, Almıla & Ballı, Esra, 2013. "Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 605-612.
  8. Bassem Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti & Russell C. Krueger, 2009. "Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions," IMF Working Papers 09/184, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Altar, Moisa & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Dumitru, Ionut & Necula, Ciprian, 2009. "Estimation of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and of Deviations for Romania," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 090105, National Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Hayat, Aziz & Ganiev, Bahodir & Tang, Xueli, 2013. "Expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1274-1285.
  12. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Claudio Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 06/221, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Onishchenko, Kateryna, 2011. "Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  15. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

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