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Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro

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  • Rahn, Jörg

    ()
    (BOFIT)

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    Abstract

    We apply BEER and PEER approaches to calculate real equilibrium exchange rates for five EU accession countries in central and east Europe. Bilateral nominal equilibrium exchange rates against the euro are obtained through algebraic transformation of the results. Panel cointegration techniques are used to check the adequacy of the empirical model. The results reveal substantial overvaluations of the real exchange rate in several EU accession countries. Overvaluation is even higher when these exchange rates are expressed in nominal terms against the euro.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/dp1103.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 11/2003.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: 04 Sep 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2003_011

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    Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
    Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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    Related research

    Keywords: real exchange rates; equilibrium exchange rates; transition economies; panel cointeg;

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    1. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    3. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
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    5. Evzen Kocenda, 1999. "Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp149, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
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    7. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    8. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
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    10. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    11. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
    13. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1997. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 97/149, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimating the FEER for the Czech Economy," Macroeconomics 0303014, EconWPA.
    16. repec:fth:eeccco:144 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," Working Paper Series 0085, European Central Bank.
    18. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
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    20. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
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    22. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Clemens J M Kool & Tom Van Veen & Bertrand Chandelon & Katharina Raabe, 2005. "The Feasibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for New EU-members Evidence from Real Exchange Rates," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 20, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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