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Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in transition: Do we understand what we see?

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  • Égert, Balázs

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Time series and panel cointegration techniques are used to show that the BS effect works reasonably well in these transition economies during the period 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2. However, productivity growth does not fully translate into price in-creases due to the structure of CPI indexes. We thus argue that productivity growth will not hinder the ability of the five EU accession candidates to meet the Maastricht criterion on inflation in the medium term. Moreover, the observed appreciation of the CPI-deflated real exchange rate is found to be systematically higher compared to the real appreciation justi-fied by the Balassa-Samuelson effect, particularly in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This may be partly explained by the trend appreciation of the tradable-goods-price-based real exchange rate, increases in non-tradable sector prices due to price liberali-sation and demand-side pressures, and the evolution of the nominal exchange rate due to the exchange rate regime and magnitude of capital inflows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 6/2002.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2002_006

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson effect; productivity; real exchange rate; transition; panel cointegration;

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References

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  2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Michael Reutter, 2001. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," NBER Working Papers 8085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 5.
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  8. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1999. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7), pages 109-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  10. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2004. "How would a Fixed-Exchange-Rate Regime Fit the Transition Economies? The cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3083, Sciences Po.
  3. Balázs Égert & Imed Drine & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Christophe Rault, 2002. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 483, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. José García-Solanes & Francisco I. Sancho-Portero & Fernando Torrejón-Flores, 2007. "Beyond the Salassa-Samuelson Effect in some New Member States of the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1886, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Gonzalo Caprirolo & Vladimir Lavrac, 2003. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17g, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
  6. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary WÛjcik, 2004. "Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 153-179, 03.
  7. Kowalski, Tadeusz & Kowalski, Pawel & Wihlborg, Clas, 2007. "Poland. The EMU entry strategy vs. the monetary issues," MPRA Paper 42599, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  8. Kowalski, Tadeusz & Pietrzykowski, Maciej, 2010. "The economic and monetary union vs. shifts in competitiveness of member states," MPRA Paper 33995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kowalski, Tadeusz, 2012. "The economic and monetary union countries vs. the global crisis," MPRA Paper 37942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Hernando Zuleta & Oscar Avila & Mauricio Rodriguez, 2009. "The balassa-samuelson hypothesis and elderly migration," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 005267, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  11. Kowalski, Tadeusz & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2014. "The reaction of the U.S. and the European Monetary Union to recent global financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 27-47.
  12. Josip Funda & Gorana Lukiniæ & Igor Ljubaj, 2007. "Assessment of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 321-351.
  13. Vladimir Benacek & Jiri Podpiera & Ladislav Prokop, 2005. "Determining Factors of Czech Foreign Trade: A Cross-Section Time Series Perspective," Working Papers 2005/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  14. Predrag Petrovic, 2012. "Harrod Balassa Samuelson effect and the role of distribution sector: an empirical case study of Serbia and EMU," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 57-87.
  15. Volkhart Vincentz & Michael Knogler, 2003. "Szenarien der mittelfristigen Konvergenz der EU-Beitrittsländer Polen, Slowakische Republik und Ungarn," Working Papers 244, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).

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