Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in transition: Do we understand what we see?
AbstractThis paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Time series and panel cointegration techniques are used to show that the BS effect works reasonably well in these transition economies during the period 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2. However, productivity growth does not fully translate into price in-creases due to the structure of CPI indexes. We thus argue that productivity growth will not hinder the ability of the five EU accession candidates to meet the Maastricht criterion on inflation in the medium term. Moreover, the observed appreciation of the CPI-deflated real exchange rate is found to be systematically higher compared to the real appreciation justi-fied by the Balassa-Samuelson effect, particularly in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This may be partly explained by the trend appreciation of the tradable-goods-price-based real exchange rate, increases in non-tradable sector prices due to price liberali-sation and demand-side pressures, and the evolution of the nominal exchange rate due to the exchange rate regime and magnitude of capital inflows.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 6/2002.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
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Balassa-Samuelson effect; productivity; real exchange rate; transition; panel cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- P17 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Performance and Prospects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-09-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2007-09-16 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2007-09-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-09-16 (Monetary Economics)
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