Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach
AbstractThe aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate. Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 5/2002.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 11 Mar 2002
Date of revision:
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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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financial crises; vulnerability indicator; Central and Eastern Europe;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2007-09-16 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-EEC-2007-09-16 (European Economics)
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