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Exchange rate regimes and nominal convergence in the CEECs

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  • Järvinen, Marketta

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    (BOFIT)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines, in the context of future EMU membership of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), the interaction between fiscal policy and the price level in different exchange rate regimes. The theoretical framework is based on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL). The results show that a credibly fixed exchange rate is inconsistent with fiscal irresponsibility, while adopting the common currency enables the conduct of irresponsible policies with the result that a rise in the level of debt by one member country raises the common price level of the whole union.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/dp0402.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 4/2002.

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    Length: 50 pages
    Date of creation: 28 Mar 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2002_004

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
    Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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    Related research

    Keywords: exchange rate regimes; inflation; fiscal theory of the price level; transition economies;

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    1. Daniel, Betty C, 2001. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 969-88, November.
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    3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 2511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Fatás, Antonio & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
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    7. Buiter, Willem H, 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 2205, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 2000. "Money as Stock: Price Level Determination with no Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 7498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Komulainen, Tuomas & Pirttilä, Jukka, 2000. "Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert E & Diba, Behzad T, 2001. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(474), pages 667-90, October.
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    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38.
    14. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," NBER Working Papers 6471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
    17. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
    18. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "The fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 22-32.
    19. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1317-1338, July.
    21. Dupor, Bill, 2000. "Exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 613-630, June.
    22. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Bergin, Paul R., 2000. "Fiscal solvency and price level determination in a monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 37-53, February.
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