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Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach

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  • Kim, Byung-Yeon

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

Using cointegration and error-correction models, this paper analyses the relative impacts of the monetary, labour and foreign sectors on Polish inflation from 1990 to 1999. Following the development of a theoretical framework, we use a structural system approach in which cointegration relationships are used to derive deviations from steady-state levels. The deviations are interpreted as excess demand pressure on inflation in a given sector and subsequently incorporated in order to determine the short-run dynamics of Polish inflation. The results suggest that the labour and external sectors dominated the determination of Polish inflation during the above period, but their effects have been opposite since 1994. The appreciation of the domestic currency contributed to reducing inflation, while excessive wage increases prevented inflation from decreasing to a lower level. The monetary sector appears not to have exerted influence on inflation, suggesting monetary policy has been passive.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 16/2001.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 20 Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2001_016

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: inflation; cointegration; error correction mechanism; Poland;

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References

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  1. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2000. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies: The case of Ploand and Hungary," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Enev, Tihomir & Koford, Kenneth, 2000. " The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 141-69.
  3. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
  4. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland, and the UK," Working Papers 145, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," Working Papers 1999-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
  7. Peter Christoffersen & Torsten Sløk & Robert Wescott, 2001. "Is inflation targeting feasible in Poland?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, March.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modeling inflation in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 375-385, August.
  10. Thierry Pujol & Mark E. L. Griffiths, 1996. "Moderate Inflation in Poland: A Real Story," IMF Working Papers 96/57, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kevin Ross, 1998. "Post Stabilization Inflation Dynamics in Slovenia," IMF Working Papers 98/27, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ekaterina Vostroknutova, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 177-198, June.
  2. Koskinen, Juha-Pekka & Koivu, Tuuli & Chowdhury, Abdur, 2004. "Selecting inflation indicators under an inflation targeting regime: evidence from the MCL method," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mosayeb PAHLAVANI & Mohammad RAHIMI, 2009. "Sources of Inflation in Iran: An application of the ARDL Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  5. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
  6. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttilä, Jukka & Rautava, Jouko, 2001. "Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  7. Martina Alexová, 2012. "Inflation drivers in new EU members," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2012, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

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