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Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the Euro area and the CEECs

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko

    ()
    (BOFIT)

  • Korhonen, Iikka

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between the countries of the euro area and the accession countries in the 1990s. Shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation. We find that some accession countries have a quite high correlation of the underlying shocks with the euro area. However, even for many advanced accession countries, the shocks remain significantly more idiosyncratic. Furthermore, many EU countries seem to have a much higher correlation with the core euro area countries than in the previous decades. Continuing integration within the EU seems to have aligned the business cycles of these countries as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 14/2001.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 18 Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2001_014

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: optimum currency area; EMU; EU enlargement; structural VAR;

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  1. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of monetary unions: Lessons from the break-up of Czechoslovakia," ZEI Working Papers B 17-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Brada, Josef C. & Ktan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  3. Ville Kaitila, 2002. "Accession Countries’ Comparative Advantage in the Internal," International Trade 0209001, EconWPA.
  4. Ronald McKinnon, 2002. "Optimum currency areas and the European experience," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 343-364, July.
  5. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  7. Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "On the Way of EMU Enlargement towards CEECs: What is the Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
  10. D. Mario Nuti, 2002. "Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 419-444, July.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Jarko Fidrmuc & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein & Andreas Wörgötter, 1999. "East-west intra-industry trade dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 332-346, June.
  13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the Euro area and the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2002. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence within transition economies and to the European Union: Evidence from panel data," ZEI Working Papers B 21-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  15. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane & Schmidt, Günter, 1999. "Some shocking aspects of EMU enlargement," Research Notes 99-4, Deutsche Bank Research.
  17. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  18. McKinnon, Ronald, 2000. "Mundell, the Euro, and the World Dollar Standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 311-324, May.
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