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Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the Euro area and the accession countries

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Abstract

This note looks at the correlation of short-term business cycles in the euro area and the EU accession countries. The issue is assessed with the help of vector autoregressive models. There are clear differences in the degree of correlation between accession countries. For Hungary and Slovenia, euro area shocks can explain a large share of variation in industrial production, while for some countries this influence is much smaller. For the latter countries, the results imply that joining the monetary union could entail reasonably large costs, unless their business cycles converge closer to the euro area cycle. Generally, for smaller countries the relative influence of the euro area business cycle is larger. Also, it is found that the most advanced accession countries are at least as integrated with the euro area business cycle as some small present member countries of the monetary union.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/dp0901.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 9/2001.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 14 Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2001_009

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: optimal currency area; monetary union; EU enlargement;

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
  3. Lubos Komarek & Zdenek Cech & Roman Horvath, 2003. "Optimum Currency Area Indices - How Close is the Czech Republic to the Eurozone?," Working Papers 2003/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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