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The Endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

This paper tests an endogeneity hypothesis of optimum currency area (OCA) criteria (Frankel and Rose, 1998) on a cross-section of OECD countries between 1990 and 1999. The findings indicate that convergence of business cycles relates to intra-industry trade, but has no direct relation between business cycles and bilateral trade intensity. As far as intra-industry trade is positively correlated with trade intensities, this result confirms the OCA endogeneity hypothesis. The endogeneity of OCA linkage criteria implies extensive business cycle harmonization between CEECs and EU countries in the medium term.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/dp0801.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 8/2001.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 22 Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2001_008

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: optimum currency area; EMU; trade; business cycle; CEECs;

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References

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  1. Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Verification of the New Trade Theory in EU's Trade with CEECs," Economics Series 72, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5dt9501s, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Wendy Carlin & Andrew Glyn & John Van Reenen, 1999. "Export Market Performance of OECD countries: an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness," IFS Working Papers W99/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Hochreiter, Eduard & Winckler, Georg, 1995. "The advantages of tying Austria's hands: The success of the hard currency strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 83-111, March.
  6. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of monetary unions: Lessons from the break-up of Czechoslovakia," ZEI Working Papers B 17-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August.
  9. Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Disintegration and Trade," LICOS Discussion Papers 9901, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  10. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 11 edited by Morten Balling.
  11. Peter B. Kenen, 2000. "Currency Areas, Policy Domains, and the Institutionalization of Fixed Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0467, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  12. Portes, Richard, 2001. "The Euro and the International Financial System," CEPR Discussion Papers 2955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
  14. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Dixit, Avinash, 2000. "A Repeated Game Model of Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 759-80, October.
  16. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  17. Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  18. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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