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The Endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement

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Author Info
Fidrmuc, Jarko () (BOFIT)

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Abstract

This paper tests an endogeneity hypothesis of optimum currency area (OCA) criteria (Frankel and Rose, 1998) on a cross-section of OECD countries between 1990 and 1999. The findings indicate that convergence of business cycles relates to intra-industry trade, but has no direct relation between business cycles and bilateral trade intensity. As far as intra-industry trade is positively correlated with trade intensities, this result confirms the OCA endogeneity hypothesis. The endogeneity of OCA linkage criteria implies extensive business cycle harmonization between CEECs and EU countries in the medium term.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 8/2001.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 22 Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2001_008

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Related research
Keywords: optimum currency area; EMU; trade; business cycle; CEECs;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2641, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carlin, Wendy & Glyn, Andrew & Van Reenen, John, 2001. "Export Market Performance of OECD Countries: An Empirical Examination of the Role of Cost Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(468), pages 128-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Eduard HOCHREITER & Georg WINCKLER, 1993. "The Advantages of Tying Austria's Hands: The Success of the Hard Currency Strategy," Vienna Economics Papers vie9307, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
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  6. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dixit, Avinash, 2000. "A Repeated Game Model of Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 759-80, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Portes, Richard, 2001. "The Euro and the International Financial System," CEPR Discussion Papers 2955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Break-up of Czechoslovakia," Transition Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Verification of the New Trade Theory in EU's Trade with CEECs," Economics Series 72, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  14. George Kopits, 1999. "Implications of EMU for Exchange Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 99/9, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  17. Barry Eichengreen & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1036, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "How much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-061, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Balazs Egert & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 47-72, May. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0574, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 104-123, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Trade Effects of Monetary Integration in Large, Mature Economies: A Primer on the European Monetary Union," Kiel Working Papers 1137, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 21, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  8. DomeNico Raguseo & Jan Sebo, 2008. "Optimum Currency Areas theory and the Slovak suitability for the euro adoption," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(40), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
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