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Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

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  • Komulainen, Tuomas

    ()
    (BOFIT)

  • Pirttilä, Jukka

    ()
    (BOFIT)

Abstract

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three crisis-hidden transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that while fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria to a certain extent, this has not been the case in Romania and Russia. Even in the Bulgarian case, the usual money aggregate has proven more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that monetary policy plays an influential role in inflation determination in these countries. In other words, inflationary financing of deficits, rather than deficits themselves, accounts for inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 11/2000.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 06 Nov 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2000_011

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Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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Keywords: fiscal policy; inflation; vector autoregressive models; transition economies;

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1999. "Prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2174, The World Bank.
  3. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  4. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 7302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 45-66, Spring.
  6. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," NBER Working Papers 6471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marek Dabrowski, 1999. "Disinflation, Monetary Policy and Fiscal Constraints. Experience of the Countries in Transition," CASE Network Reports 0016, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  8. Carlo Cottarelli, 1998. "The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation," IMF Working Papers 98/23, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," Working Papers 1999-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Donal McGettigan, 2000. "Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 189, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  12. John H. Cochrane, 2000. "Money as Stock: Price Level Determination with no Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 7498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Wolf, H.C., 1999. "Transition Strategies: Choices and Outcomes," Princeton Studies in International Economics 85, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  14. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert E & Diba, Behzad T, 2001. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(474), pages 667-90, October.
  15. Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/31, International Monetary Fund.
  16. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2007. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the fiscal theory of the price level," Working Papers 07-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  2. Marek Dabrowski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2002. "Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0241, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Kreiter, Zebulun & Paul, Tapas Kumar, 2010. "Deficit Financing and Inflation in Bangladesh: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," MPRA Paper 45981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Järvinen, Marketta, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes and nominal convergence in the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2006. "Does inflation or currency depreciation drive monetary policy in Russia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-179, June.
  7. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
  8. Michael Berlemann & Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2000. "Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp759, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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