The paper examines currency crisis theories and applies them in searching for the main causes of the Russian crisis. We first study the determination of the exchange rate and then the first and second generation theories on currency crisis and finally the recent theoretical discussions of the Asian crisis. The main reason for the Russian crisis was the long-standing federal budget deficit. During the last years the deficits were financed mainly via short-term domestic debt. This created expectations of government insolvency and central bank financing. Moreover, the Russian economy has its own basic weaknesses, which render the country incapable of growth and prone to crisis. The Asian crisis was a trigger for the Russian crisis. Lower prices for Russian export products, inadequate financial regulations and lack of information in emerging markets in general are factors explaining this contagion effect. But the main mistakes that led to the crisis were those of the Russians themselves - the federal budget deficits. Thus the repair work should also start from there.
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number
1/1999.
Length: 45 pages Date of creation: 30 Oct 1999 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:1999_001
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland Phone: + 358 10 831 2268 Fax: + 358 10 831 2294 Email: Web page: http://www.bof.fi/bofit/ More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
MPRA Paper
6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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