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EDGE: a model of the euro area with applications to monetary policy

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  • Kortelainen, Mika

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

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    Abstract

    We ask the question: Does it matter whether expections on monetary policy are heterogeneous across agents in the economy? We tackle this issue with the aid of a dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities. The most important features of the model include consumption/saving decisions according to Blanchard's stochastic lifetimes approach; valuation of private financial wealth according to the present value of capital income; overlapping Calvo wage contracts in the labour market; and a neoclassical supply side with Cobb-Douglas technology. The model is calibrated to match the first and second moments of the publicly available euro area data. In simulation checks we find that the autocorrelation structure of the model, when subjected to stochastic shocks, also resembles that of the euro area data. Furthermore, diagnostic simulation results of the model provide intuitively appealing economic responses. In studying the effect of heterogeneity of expectations, we distinguish between central bank expectations and private sector expectations. The results show that if private sector expectations differ from central bank expectations, there will be real costs to the economy. We also show that the existence of a learning mechanism in the economy results in significantly smaller costs to the economy. And we find that random shifts interpreted as lack of transparency cause changes in private sector expectations, which generate costs in the form of higher variability in the economy. All in all, our results show that heterogeneity of expectations on monetary policy may generate economically significant costs.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/erillisjulkaisut/Documents/E23.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Scientific Monographs with number E:23/2002.

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    Length: 169 pages
    Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofism:2002_023

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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    Related research

    Keywords: EDGE; rational expectations; heterogeneous expectations; learning; dynamic general equilibrium model;

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    Cited by:
    1. Tarkka , Juha & Kortelainen , Mika, 2005. "International economic spillovers and the liquidity trap," Research Discussion Papers 18/2005, Bank of Finland.
    2. Burriel, Pablo & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan Francisco, 2009. "MEDEA: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hlédik , Tibor, 2003. "A calibrated structural model of the Czech economy," Research Discussion Papers 35/2003, Bank of Finland.
    5. Männistö , Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model: combining long-run views of financial markets with macro forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland.
    6. Tibor Hlédik, 2004. "A calibrated structural model of the Czech economy," Macroeconomics 0404027, EconWPA.
    7. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404028, EconWPA.
    8. Railavo, Jukka, 2003. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Research Discussion Papers 34/2003, Bank of Finland.
    9. Ricardo Mourinho Félix, 2005. "A macroeconomic structural model for the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w200513, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Ángel Estrada, 2006. "BEMOD: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy and the rest of the Euro area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0631, Banco de Espa�a.

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