This paper provides a new way of analyzing tenure profiles in wages,
by modelling simultaneously the evolution of wages and the distribution
of tenures. Starting point is the observation that within-job log wages for
an individual can be described by random walk. We develop a theoretical
model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside wage and log
wage in the current job follow a random walk. This setting allows the
application of real option theory. We derive the efficient separation rule,
which stipulates that workers switch jobs when the difference between the
outside wage and the wage in the current job reaches a threshold. The
model fits well the observed distribution of job tenures. Since we observe
outside wages only at job start and job separation, our empirical analysis
of within job wage growth is based on expected wage growth conditional
on the outside wages at both dates. Our modelling allows testing of the
efficient bargaining hypothesis. The model is estimated on the PSID.
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Paper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
05-9.
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repec:bep:maccon:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:1340-1340 is not listed on IDEAS
Buhai, Sebastian & Portela, Miguel & Teulings, Coen & van Vuuren, Aico, 2008.
"Returns to Tenure or Seniority?,"
Working Papers
08-1, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
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