Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets
AbstractThis paper examines the asymmetric behavior of conditional mean and variance. Short-horizon mean-reversion behavior in mean is modeled with an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model, and the variance is modeled with an Exponential GARCH in Mean model. The results of the empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets indicates that negative returns revert faster to positive returns when positive returns generally persist longer. Asymmetry in both mean and variance can be seen on all included markets and are fairly similar. Volatility rises following negative returns more than following positive returns which is an indication of overreactions. Negative returns lead to increased variance and positive returns leads even to decreased variance.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hanken School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 524.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hanken School of Economics, Arkadiankatu 22, P.O.B. 479; FIN 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: +358-9-431 331
Fax: +358-9-431 33 333
Web page: http://www.hanken.fi
More information through EDIRC
asymmetric mean-reversion; overreactions; nonlinearity; exponential GARCH in mean; Nordic stock markets;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-08 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling economic high-frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 291, Stockholm School of Economics.
- González-Rivera Gloria, 1998. "Smooth-Transition GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, July.
- Kurt Brännäs & Jan G. de Gooijer, 2000.
"Asymmetries in Conditional Mean and Variance: Modelling Stock Returns by asMA-asQGARCH,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
00-049/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Jan G. De Gooijer & Kurt Brännäs, 2004. "Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 155-171.
- Brännäs, Kurt & de Gooijer, Jan G., 2000. "ASYMMETRIES IN CONDITIONAL MEAN AND VARIANCE: MODELLING STOCK RETURNS BY asMA-asQGARCH," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 535, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
2795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, Myung Jig & Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 515-28, May.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990.
"When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," NBER Working Papers 2977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-., 1989. "When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction?," Working papers 3008-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 563-588, December.
- Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-53, July.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Fornari, Fabio & Mele, Antonio, 1997.
"Sign- and Volatility-Switching ARCH Models: Theory and Applications to International Stock Markets,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 49-65, Jan.-Feb..
- Fornari, F. & Mele, A., 1995. "Sign- and Volatility -Switching ARCH Models: Theory and Applications to International Stock Markets," Papers 251, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Avard, Stephen L., 2001. "Asymmetric reverting behavior of short-horizon stock returns: An evidence of stock market overreaction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 807-824, April.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. " Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-81, July.
- Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
- Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Staffan Dellringer).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.