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Estimation of multivariate probit models by exact maximum likelihood

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Author Info
Jacques Huguenin
Florian Pelgrin
Alberto Holly
Abstract

In this paper, we develop a new numerical method to estimate a multivariate probit model. To this end, we derive a new decomposition of normal multivariate integrals that has two appealing properties. First, the decomposition may be written as the sum of normal multivariate integrals, in which the highest dimension of the integrands is reduced relative to the initial problem. Second, the domains of integration are bounded and delimited by the correlation coefficients. Application of a Gauss-Legendre quadrature rule to the exact likelihood function of lower dimension allows for a major reduction of computing time while simultaneously obtaining consistent and efficient estimates for both the slope and the scale parameters. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample and asymptotic properties of our method compare extremely favorably to the maximum simulated likelihood estimator in terms of both bias and root mean squared error.

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Paper provided by University of Lausanne, Institute of Health Economics and Management (IEMS) in its series Working Papers with number 0902.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hem:wpaper:0902

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Related research
Keywords: Multivariate Probit Model; Simulated and Full Information Maximum Likelihood; Multivariate Normal Distribution; Simulations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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  1. Peter Craig, 2008. "A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 227-243. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lee, Lung-fei, 1999. "Statistical Inference With Simulated Likelihood Functions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 337-360, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2003. "Multivariate probit regression using simulated maximum likelihood," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2003 10, Stata Users Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tetsuhisa Miwa & A. J. Hayter & Satoshi Kuriki, 2003. "The evaluation of general non-centred orthant probabilities," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 223-234. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sickles, Robin C & Taubman, Paul, 1986. "An Analysis of the Health and Retirement Status of the Elderly," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1339-56, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1997. "Simulated maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic discrete choice statistical models some Monte Carlo results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-35. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Breslaw, Jon A, 1994. "Evaluation of Multivariate Normal Probability Integrals Using a Low Variance Simulator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 673-82, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort, 1991. "Simulation Based Inference in Models with Heterogeneity," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 20-21, pages 05, Octobre-m. [Downloadable!]
  11. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1978. "A Conditional Probit Model for Qualitative Choice: Discrete Decisions Recognizing Interdependence and Heterogeneous Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 403-26, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sandor, Zsolt & Andras, P.Peter, 2004. "Alternative sampling methods for estimating multivariate normal probabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 207-234, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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