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The grand divergence: global and European current account surpluses

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  • Zsolt Darvas

    (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Bruegel and Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

Highlights - Global current account imbalances widened before the 2007/2008 crisis and have narrowed since then. While the post-crisis adjustment of European current account deficits was in line with global developments (though more forceful), European current account surpluses defied global trends and increased. - We use panel econometric models to analyse the determinants of medium-term current account balances. Our results confirm that higher fiscal balances, higher GDP per capita, more rapidly aging populations, larger net foreign assets, larger oil rents and better legal systems increase the medium-term current account balance, while a larger growth differential and a higher old-age dependency ratio reduce it. - European current account surpluses became excessive during the past twelve years according to our estimates, while they were in line with model predictions in the preceding three decades. - Generally, the gap between the actual current account and its fitted value by the model has a strong predictive power for future current account changes. Excess deficits adjust more forcefully than excess surpluses. However, in the 2004-07 period, excess imbalances were amplified, which was followed by a forceful correction in 2008-15, with the exception of European surpluses.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2015. "The grand divergence: global and European current account surpluses," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1542, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1542
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Valerio Della Corte & Claire Giordano, 2021. "Methodological issues in the estimation of current account imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 617, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2016. "A Closer Look at EU Current Accounts," CEIS Research Paper 393, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Aug 2016.
    3. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2022. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account imbalances; Current account adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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