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Gambler's fallacy in the classroom?

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Author Info

  • Hubert Janos Kiss

    ()
    (Game Theory Research Group, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Adrienn Selei

    ()
    (Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research)

Abstract

Does students' hand tremble after marking three consecutive identical answers in a multiple choice test? We design an experiment to study if the likelihood to change incorrectly to a different answer than the last one depends on the number of identical previous answers. We do not find a clear treatment effect, but observe that indeed the likelihood to change to an incorrect answer increases in the number of identical previous answers given by the student, even after controlling for how prepared (s)he was overall and how certain (s)he was that the answer to a given multiple choice question is correct. We claim that this behavior possibly is a reasonable reaction to previous exam experience.

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File URL: http://econ.core.hu/file/download/mtdp/MTDP1342.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 1342.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1342

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Related research

Keywords: belief; experiment; gambler's fallacy; multiple choice;

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  1. S. Dellavigna., 2011. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
  2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2004:i:4:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Charles Ballard & Marianne Johnson, 2005. "Gender, Expectations, And Grades In Introductory Microeconomics At A Us University," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 95-122.
  4. Albert Burgos, 2004. "Guessing and gambling," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(4), pages 1-10.
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