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Can Europe recover without credit?

Author

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  • Zsolt Darvas

    (Bruegel and Corvinus University of Budapest and Center for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Can Europe recover without credit?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1318, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1318
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    Cited by:

    1. Ádám Balog & György Matolcsy & Nagy Márton & Balázs Vonnák, 2014. "Credit crunch in Hungary between 2009 and 2013: is the creditless period over?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 13(4), pages 11-34.
    2. Michiel Bijlsma & Gijsbert Zwart, 2013. "The changing landscape of financial markets in Europe, the United States and Japan," CPB Discussion Paper 238, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
    4. Katalin Bodnár & Zsolt Kovalszky & Emese Hudák, 2014. "Recovery from crises and lending," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 13(4), pages 57-85.
    5. Lang, Péter & Drabancz, Áron & El-Meouch Nedim, Márton, 2021. "A koronavírus-járvány miatt bevezetett jegybanki és állami hitelprogramok hatása a magyar foglalkoztatásra [The impact of central-bank and state-loan programmes introduced in Hungarian employment d," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 930-965.
    6. Martin Bijsterbosch & Tatjana Dahlhaus, 2015. "Key features and determinants of credit-less recoveries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1245-1269, December.
    7. Nicolas Véron, 2013. "A realistic bridge towards European banking union," Policy Contributions 783, Bruegel.
    8. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    9. Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2018. "Methodologies for the Assessment of Current Account Benchmarks," European Economy - Discussion Papers 086, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Kraemer-Eis, Helmut & Lang, Frank, 2014. "Guidelines for SME Access to Finance Market Assessments (GAFMA)," EIF Working Paper Series 2014/22, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    11. Sandra Zerafa, "undated". "Access to finance for firms in Malta: Estimating the impact of reduced credit," CBM Policy Papers PP/03/2017, Central Bank of Malta.
    12. Maria Siranova & Jana Kotlebova, 2015. "Possible Impact of the ECB’s Outright Purchase Programmes on Economic Growth from Individual Eurozone Countries’ Point of View," MIC 2015: Managing Sustainable Growth; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Portorož, Slovenia, 28–30 May 2015,, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    creditless recoveries; credit growth; financial structure; real exchange rate adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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