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A New Simple Test Against Spurious Long Memory Using Temporal Aggregation

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  • Kuswanto, Heri
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    Abstract

    We have developed a new test against spurious long memory based on the invariance of long memory parameter to aggregation. By using the local Whittle estimator, the statistic takes the supremum among combinations of paired aggregated series. Simulations show that the test performs good in finite sample sizes, and is able to distinguish long memory from spurious processes with excellent power. Moreover, the empirical application gives further evidence that the observed long memory in German stock returns is spurious.

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    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-425.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) with number dp-425.

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    Length: 19 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-425

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    Keywords: Local-Whittle method; Spurious long memory; Change point; Aggregation;

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    1. Kuswanto, Heri & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2007. "Can we distinguish between common nonlinear time series models and long memory?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-380, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    3. Marcus J. Chambers, . "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Discussion Papers 437, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Leonardo Rocha Souza, 2007. "Temporal Aggregation and Bandwidth selection in estimating long memory," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 701-722, 09.
    5. Henghsiu Tsai & K. S. Chan, 2005. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Class of Continuous-time Long-memory Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 691-713, 09.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2003:i:3:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Philipp Sibbertsen, 2004. "Long memory versus structural breaks: An overview," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 465-515, October.
    8. Olan Henry, 2002. "Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 725-729.
    9. Henryk GURGUL & Tomasz WÓJTOWICZ, 2006. "Long Memory on the German Stock Exchange," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(09-10), pages 447-468, September.
    10. Lobato, I.N. & Savin, N.E., 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Working Papers 96-07, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    11. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D., 1997. "Another look at long memory in common stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 373-401, December.
    12. Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    13. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-165, February.
    14. Breidt, F. Jay & Hsu, Nan-Jung, 2002. "A class of nearly long-memory time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 265-281.
    15. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    16. Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
    17. Lobato, Ignacio N & Robinson, Peter M, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 475-95, July.
    18. Philipp Sibbertsen, 2004. "Long memory in volatilities of German stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 477-488, 09.
    19. Kuswanto, Heri & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2008. "A Study on "Spurious Long Memory in Nonlinear Time Series Models"," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-410, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    20. Ohanissian, Arek & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2008. "True or Spurious Long Memory? A New Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 161-175, April.
    21. Man, K.S. & Tiao, G.C., 2006. "Aggregation effect and forecasting temporal aggregates of long memory processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-281.
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