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Rational bubbles and fractional integration

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Author Info
Kruse, Robinson

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Abstract

In this article we provide evidence for a rational bubble in S\&P 500 stock prices by applying a test for changing persistence under fractional integration proposed by Sibbertsen and Kruse (2007). We find strong evidence for stationary long memory before the estimated change point in 1955 and a unit root afterwards. These results bring two empirical findings in line: on one hand they confirm the previous result of fractional integration and on the other hand they support the hypothesis of a rational bubble.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover with number dp-394.

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Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-394

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Related research
Keywords: fractional integration; bubbles; changing persistence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Kruse, Robinson, 2007. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-381, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Robert Sollis, 2006. "Testing for bubbles: an application of tests for change in persistence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 491-498, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-3.

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