Who leaves, who moves in? The impact of positive and negative income shocks on migration in Senegal

Using a recent household survey conducted in Senegal, I examine the impact of negative and positive income shocks on departures from and entries in the household. I focus on differences in responses to shocks across the urban and rural sectors as well as age and gender groups. Striking differences emerge. Positive shocks increase entries of young girls and adult females in rural areas while they attract adult males in urban areas. Negative shocks decrease the arrivals of boys in urban areas while, in rural areas, they only impact the entries of adult males. Migration only increases after negative shocks, for prime-age adults wherever they reside and for adult children of urban household heads. In addition to migration, I examine private transfers. They show much less contrast between urban and rural areas but a sharp contrast between males and females. Adult males increase the amount of transfers they send after positive shocks and receive more transfers after negative shocks, wherever they reside, pointing towards the use of transfers as insurance. Females send and receive on average more transfers than males. However, negative shocks do not increase the amount of transfers they receive. Negative shocks only reduce transfers given by older rural females. Overall, both in terms of movements and transfers, individuals benefit very differently from their external relations, depending on their place of residence, gender and age. Given the heterogenous responses of migration and private transfers to income shocks, identical public policies may have very different effects for urban and rural areas and across age and gender.