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Landlockedness, Infrastructure and Trade:New Estimates for Central Asian Countries

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  • Céline Carrere

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Christopher Grigoriou

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of internal infrastructure and landlockedness on Central Asian trade. The impact of landlockedness on Central Asian's trade costs is split into several components, using a panel gravity equation estimated on a large sample of countries (167 countries over 1992-2004). Our findings highlight that an improvement in the own infrastructure of Central Asian countries from the level of the median Central Asian country to that of other landlocked countries would raise exports (imports) by a modest 2.4% (3.1%). By contrast, an improvement in Central Asian transit-country infrastructure to the level of the other landlocked countries would raise the representative CAC's exports by a whopping 49%. Other dimensions of landlockedness considered in this study are also great impediments to trade. Either diminishing the extra overland costs or enhancing the ability to negotiate sea access would significantly increase Central Asian trade, ‘'transit monopolies'' (single transit corridors) reducing trade significantly.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00556941.

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Date of creation: 18 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556941

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Keywords: Central Asia; Landlockedness; Trade; Transport Infrastructure; panel data;

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  1. Estache, Antonio & Goicoechea, Ana, 2005. "A"research"database on infrastructure economic performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3643, The World Bank.
  2. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Celbis, Mehmet Güney & Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 2013. "How big is the impact of infrastructure on trade? Evidence from meta-analysis," MERIT Working Papers 032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  2. Shepherd, Ben & Wilson, John S., 2006. "Road infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia : does network quality affect trade ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4104, The World Bank.
  3. Kurmanalieva, Elvira & Vinokurov, Evgeny, 2011. "Holding together or falling apart:Results of gravity equation of the CIS trade," MPRA Paper 32003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Normizan Bakar, 2013. "Optimal transport and trade policy under Bertrand competition in the presence of restricted geographical condition," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6004, .
  5. United Nations ESCAP (ed.), 2011. "Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Report 2011: Post-crisis trade and investment opportunities," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number aptir2596, December.
  6. World Bank, 2011. "Challenges to Enterprise Performance in the Face of the Financial Crisis : Eastern Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2316, February.

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