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Banking and Borrowing in the EU ETS: An Econometric Appraisal of the 2005-2007 Intertemporal Market

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Author Info
Julien Chevallier () (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université de Paris X - Nanterre)
Emilie Alberola (Mission Climat Caisse des Dépôts - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)

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Abstract

This article critically examines the EU ETS intertemporal market during its Phase I (2005-2007). We test the Hotelling rule as a key element of a competitive equilibrium to validate whether allowance prices rise at the same rate as the interest rate. Including readily observable characteristics of the EU ETS such as the presence of one endogenous structural break and the influence of other energy markets shocks, we argue the inter-period ban on banking undermines the ability of the EU ETS to provide efficient price signalling. We also find a significant relationship between allowance price changes and the expected scarcity of allowances approximated by the Ellerman-Parsons ratio. Finally, our results show evidence of institutional learning by market participants.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00388071_v1.

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Date of creation: 26 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00388071_v1

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Related research
Keywords: Emissions trading; Banking; EU ETS; Hotelling rule; Ellerman-Parsons Ratio;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark, 2001. "Testing the Null of Stationarity in the Presence of a Structural Break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2006. "On Pollution Permit Banking and Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 283-302, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Julien Pierre Chevallier, 2007. "A differential game of intertemporal emissions trading with market power," EconomiX Working Papers 2007-18, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-28.

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