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Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries

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Author Info

  • Georges Prat

    ()
    (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université de Paris X - Nanterre)

  • Fredj Jawadi

Abstract

This paper aims to modeling stock prices adjustment dynamics toward their fundamentals. We used the class of Switching Transition Error Correction Models (STECM) and we showed that stock prices deviations toward fundamentals could be characterized by nonlinear adjustment process with mean reversion. First, according to Anderson (1997), De Grauwe and Grimaldi (2005) and Boswijk et al.(2006), we justify these nonlinearities by the presence of heterogeneous transaction costs, behavioural heterogeneity and the interaction between shareholders expectations. After, we present STECM specification. We apply this model to describe the G7 indexes adjustment dynamics toward their fundamentals. We showed that the G7 stock indexes adjustment is smooth and nonlinearly mean-reverting and that the convergence speeds vary according to the disequilibrium extent. Finally, using two indicators proposed by Peel and Taylor (2000), we determine phases of under- and overvaluation of stock prices and measure intensity of stock prices adjustment strengths.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00172896.

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Date of creation: 18 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00172896

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00172896/en/
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Related research

Keywords: Stock Prices; Heterogeneous Transaction Costs; Nonlinear Adjustment;

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Cited by:
  1. Arouri, Mohamed & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007–2009 global financial crisis?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 175-187.
  2. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Modelling Money Demand: Further Evidence from an International Comparison," NIPE Working Papers 23/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  3. Jawadi, Fredj & Leoni, Patrick, 2009. "Threshold cointegration relationships between oil and stock markets," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 3/2009, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
  4. Fredj Jawadi & Mondher Bellalah, 2011. "Nonlinear mean reversion in oil and stock markets," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 316-326, August.
  5. Mohamed E AROURI & Fredj JAWADI & Duc K NGUYEN, 2012. "Nonlinear modeling of oil and stock price dynamics: segmentation or time-varying integration?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2481-2489.

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