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Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions

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Author Info
Minh Ha-Duong () (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts)

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Abstract

This paper discusses aspects of risk and uncertainty relevant in an interdisciplinary assessment of climate change policy. It opposes not only the objective approach (viewing probabilities as degrees of truth) versus the subjective approach (viewing them as degrees of certainty), but also situations of risk (when precise probabilities are well founded) versus situations of uncertainty (broader forms of ignorance such as Knightian or deep uncertainty, incompleteness, vagueness). It argues that the evolution of the IPCC guidelines on risk and uncertainties from the third to the fourth report can be read as a move away from a core objective and probabilistic position, to include more complex aspects of uncertainty. Still, many human dimensions such as strategic uncertainties, surprises, metaphysics, taboos and epistemic uncertainties remain missing from the IPCC guidelines' systematic typology.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00008089_v1.

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Date of creation: 21 Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00008089_v1

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Related research
Keywords: risk; uncertainty; climate change; integrated assessment;

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