A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives
AbstractWe develop a structural risk-neutral model for energy market modifying along several directions the approach introduced in Aid et al. (2009). In particular a scarcity function is introduced to allow important deviations of the spot price from the marginal fuel price, producing price spikes. We focus on pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. The hedging instruments are forward contracts on fuels and electricity. The presence of production capacities and electricity demand makes such a market incomplete. We follow a local risk minimization approach to price and hedge energy derivatives. Despite the richness of information included in the spot model, we obtain closed-form formulae for futures prices and semi-explicit formulae for spread options and European options on electricity forward contracts. An analysis of the electricity price risk premium is provided showing the contribution of demand and capacity to the futures prices. We show that when far from delivery, electricity futures behave like a basket of futures on fuels.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00525800.
Date of creation: 12 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00525800/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Electricity spot and forward prices ; Fuels ; Capacity ; Electricity demand ; Scarcity function ; Local risk minimization ; Minimal martingale measure ; Power derivatives ; Spread options ; Extended incomplete Goodwin-Staton integral;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2010-10-23 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2010-10-23 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MIC-2010-10-23 (Microeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.