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Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle : le cas de la France en 2000-2001

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Frédéric Gonand (LEEP - Laboratoire d'econometrie de l'école polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7657 - Polytechnique - X)

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Abstract

Cette étude présente une méthode empirique simple permettant d’évaluer l’impact des finances publiques sur la croissance à court terme, et plus précisément : a) l’impulsion discrétionnaire des finances publiques avant bouclage macroéconomique ; b) l’impact sur la croissance de l’impulsion discrétionnaire après bouclage et c) l’impact sur la croissance de l’ensemble des finances publiques (stabilisateurs automatiques inclus) après bouclage. L’application de cette méthode à la politique budgétaire française durant la législature 1997-2002 suggère deux résultats : a) l’effet multiplicateur agrégé des finances publiques françaises est probablement inférieur à 1, ce qui tend à valider une des propositions théoriques du modèle d’équivalence néo-ricardienne ; b) la politique budgétaire française massivement pro-cyclique lors de la phase haute de cycle en 2000-2001 a complètement neutralisé l’effet modérateur des stabilisateurs automatiques. Elle a ainsi rendu impossibles tant un retour à l'équilibre des comptes publics en période faste que toute possibilité de relance ultérieure une fois le ralentissement cyclique avéré à la fin de l'année 2001.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00243038_v1.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00243038_v1

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  1. Barsky, Robert B & Mankiw, N Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1986. "Ricardian Consumers with Keynesian Propensities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 676-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frédéric Gonand, 2005. "Effect on potential growth of non-sustainable public debt dynamics: an application to France," Working Papers hal-00242973_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sheetal K. Chand, 1992. "Fiscal Impulses and Their Fiscal Impact," IMF Working Papers 92/38, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Boris Cournède & Frédéric Gonand, 2006. "Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Raise Taxes or Curb Spending?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 520, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mark Scott Lutz & Garry J. Schinasi, 1991. "Fiscal Impulse," IMF Working Papers 91/91, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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