Grégory Benmenzer (GDF SUEZ - Direction de la Recherche - GDF SUEZ) Emmanuel Gobet () (LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - CNRS : UMR5224 - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble) Céline Jérusalem (GDF SUEZ - Direction de la Recherche - GDF SUEZ)
Abstract
In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are represented as the sum of volatility functions driven by motions. Under the risk neutral probability, the motions of both energies are correlated Brownian motions while under the historical probability, they are cointegrated by a Vectorial Error Correction Model. Our approach is equivalent to defining the market price of risk. This model is free of arbitrage: thus, it can be used for risk management as well for option pricing issues. Calibration on European market data and numerical simulations illustrate well its behavior.
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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number
hal-00200422_v1.
Length: Date of creation: 20 Dec 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00200422_v1
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