IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/halshs-00566828.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carry trade and return crash risk

Author

Listed:
  • Mouhamadou Sy

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hamidreza Tabarraei

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We build two leveraged and non-leveraged strategies for carry trading. In the non-leveraged carry trade we show that the Sharpe ratio as a proxy for profitability has a concave form with respect to the interest rate differentials. Our model predicts the concavity of the Sharpe ratio and data confirm it as well. However, high interest rate currencies have greater currency crash risk exposure and this is investigated through skewness and kurtosis of 9 most used currencies against Japanese yen. Skewness has a decreasing relationship and kurtosis an increasing relative to the interest rate differentials. We also simulate the positive shocks to the interest rates and negative shock to exchange rates skewness and we study the response of profit. Finally for the leveraged strategy, we show whenever the volatility of the funding currency is low and its covariance with the target currency is large enough, the trader should increase its short-selling position.

Suggested Citation

  • Mouhamadou Sy & Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2009. "Carry trade and return crash risk," PSE Working Papers halshs-00566828, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00566828
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00566828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00566828/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Ziyun & Chen, Su & Li, Bo, 2022. "Does previous carry trade position affect following investors' decision-making and carry returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00566828. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.