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Reconciling yield gains in agronomic trials with returns under African smallholder conditions

Author

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  • Rachid Laajaj

    (UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota])

  • Karen Macours

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Cargele Masso

    (IITA-DRC - International Institute of Tropical Agriculture - IITA - International Institute of Tropical Agriculture [Nigeria] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Moses Thuita

    (IITA-DRC - International Institute of Tropical Agriculture - IITA - International Institute of Tropical Agriculture [Nigeria] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Bernard Vanlauwe

    (IITA-DRC - International Institute of Tropical Agriculture - IITA - International Institute of Tropical Agriculture [Nigeria] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

Abstract

Increased adoption of improved agricultural technologies is considered an essential step to address global poverty and hunger, and agronomic trials suggest intensification in developing countries could result in large yield gains. Yet the promise of new technologies does not always carry over from trials to real-life conditions, and diffusion of many technologies remains limited. We show how parcel and farmer selection, together with behavioural responses in agronomic trials, can explain why yield gain estimates from trials may differ from the yield gains of smallholders using the same inputs under real-life conditions. We provide quantitative evidence by exploiting variation in farmer selection and detailed data collection from research trials in Western Kenya on which large yield increments were observed from improved input packages for maize and soybean. After adjusting for selection, behavioural responses, and other corrections, estimates of yield gains fall to being not significantly different from zero for the input package tested on one of the crops (soybean), but remain high for the other (maize). These results suggest that testing new agricultural technologies in real-world conditions and without researcher interference early in the agricultural research and development process might help with identifying which innovations are more likely to be taken up at scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachid Laajaj & Karen Macours & Cargele Masso & Moses Thuita & Bernard Vanlauwe, 2020. "Reconciling yield gains in agronomic trials with returns under African smallholder conditions," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02973685, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-02973685
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71155-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Kosmowski, Frederic & Chamberlin, Jordan & Ayalew, Hailemariam & Sida, Tesfaye & Abay, Kibrom & Craufurd, Peter, 2021. "How accurate are yield estimates from crop cuts? Evidence from smallholder maize farms in Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Michelson, Hope & Gourlay, Sydney & Lybbert, Travis & Wollburg, Philip, 2023. "Review: Purchased agricultural input quality and small farms," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Jérémie Gignoux & Karen Macours & Daniel Stein & Kelsey Wright, 2023. "Input subsidies, credit constraints, and expectations of future transfers: Evidence from Haiti," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(3), pages 809-835, May.
    4. Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Liverpool-Tasie, Saweda & Adjognon, Serge G. & Dillon, Andrew, 2022. "Private Sector Promotion of Climate-Smart Technologies: Experimental Evidence from Nigeria," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322152, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Michelson,Hope Carolyn & Gourlay,Sydney & Wollburg,Philip Randolph, 2022. "Non-Labor Input Quality and Small Farms in Sub-Saharan Africa : A Review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10092, The World Bank.
    6. Paola Mallia, 2022. "You reap what (you think) you sow? Evidence on farmers’behavioral adjustments in the case of correct crop varietal identification," PSE Working Papers hal-03597332, HAL.
    7. Puerto, Sergio, 2023. "Agriculture, innovation, and development: What happens when new technology is not good enough?," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335821, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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