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Learning by doing: the Failure of the 1697 Malt Lottery-Loan

Author

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  • Georges Gallais-Hamonno

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christian Rietsch

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The failure in 1697 of the 'Malt Lottery', the second Lottery-Loan, presents a beautiful case study. From a practical point of view, it tells us three things. 1) The technical features of the English State lotteries-loan were established for more than a century after only three experiments. 2) Its two components ('lottery' and 'loan') led to an abnormally poor return for investors since its expected return was 3.91% whereas its effective one was 5.84% - --- two figures in contradiction with the 6.3% advanced by Dickson (1967). 3) A most strange solution was imagined to counteract the failure: delivering the unsold tickets to the Exchequer for being used as cash. From a more theoretical point of view, the condition North and Weingast (1989) advanced for a successful financial issue proves necessary but not sufficient. The Malt Lottery failed (1,763 tickets sold out of 140,000) because it did not meet the three requirements for success: its return was too low and was lower than the return on competitive assets; its reimbursement dates were uncertain; and the economic and political environment was gloomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Christian Rietsch, 2013. "Learning by doing: the Failure of the 1697 Malt Lottery-Loan," Post-Print halshs-01066866, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01066866
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01066866
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Murphy, Anne L., 2005. "Lotteries in the 1690s: Investment or Gamble?," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 227-246, October.
    2. Murphy,Anne L., 2009. "The Origins of English Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521519946, January.
    3. Quinn, Stephen, 2001. "The Glorious Revolution'S Effect On English Private Finance: A Microhistory, 1680–1705," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 593-615, September.
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    Keywords

    1697 Lottery-loan; Malt Lottery; Expected and actual costs of loans and lotteries; Lottery tickets as legal currency;
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