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2°C or Not 2°C?

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  • Céline Guivarch

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech)

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech, CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS : URA1357 - INSU - Météo France)

Abstract

Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2°C. However, there is no consensus on both questions "Is the 2°C target achievable?" and "What should be done with this target that becomes increasingly difficult to achieve?". This paper aims at disentangling the points of deep uncertainty underlying this absence on consensus. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2°C target and shows how key assumptions (on the points of deep uncertainty) influence the answer to the target achievability question. It then proposes an "uncertainties and decisions tree", linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.

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File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/75/07/04/PDF/Guivarch_and_Hallegatte_2012_2C_or_not_2C_WP.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00750704.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2013
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Publication status: Published, Global environmental change:Human and policy dimensions, 2013, 23, 1, 179-192
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00750704

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00750704
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Related research

Keywords: feasibility of 2°C target; climate change negotiations; deep uncertainty;

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References

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  1. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Philippe Ambrosi & Stéphane Hallegatte & Franck Lecocq & Patrice Dumas & Minh Ha-Duong, 2003. "Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages," Post-Print, HAL halshs-00000966, HAL.
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Cited by:
  1. Hallegatte, Stephane & Fay, Marianne & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2013. "Green industrial policies : when and how," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6677, The World Bank.

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