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Réforme "Obama" de la politique d'immigration et pronostics des théories économiques : les influences de la majorité politique et de la conjoncture économique

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  • Simon Guidecoq

    ()
    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

  • Michel Rocca

    ()
    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

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    Abstract

    Les préférences de la population américaine pour une restriction de l'immigration se sont accrues avec la crise économique que traverse ce pays depuis 2008. La récente victoire électorale des Républicains pourrait favoriser leur traduction politique. Cette contribution se propose d'évaluer la probabilité de cette éventualité à partir d'une revue de littérature des théories économiques de la politique d'immigration. Elle démontre l'existence d'un "puzzle" entre d'une part ; les prédictions théoriques en faveur d'un impact de la conjoncture économique sur les préférences collectives de politique d'immigration et d'autre part ; le rôle inexistant que joue empiriquement cette variable explicative. Ce puzzle suggère que d'autres variables (institutionnelles et politiques) priment dans le processus de formation de la politique d'immigration américaine et expliquent la persistance de son ouverture. La victoire Républicaine aux élections de novembre 2010 ne permet donc pas de conclure en faveur de changements significatifs de politique d'immigration aux États-Unis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00560088.

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    Date of creation: 09 Dec 2010
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    Publication status: Published - Presented, Premier congrès annuel de l'AFEP "Crise de l'économie, crise de la science économique ?", Sciences Po Lille, 2010, Lille, France
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00560088

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00560088/en/
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    Related research

    Keywords: immigration ; politique ; conjoncture ; institution politique ; économie politique ; États-Unis;

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    1. Facchini, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria, 2008. "From individual attitudes towards migrants to migration policy outcomes: Theory and evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Sollner, Fritz, 1999. " A Note on the Political Economy of Immigration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 100(3-4), pages 245-51, September.
    3. Gianmarco I P Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," Working Papers 2008.77, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Benhabib, Jess, 1996. "On the political economy of immigration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1737-1743, December.
    5. Facchini, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria & Mishra, Prachi, 2011. "Do interest groups affect US immigration policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 114-128, September.
    6. James F. Dolmas & Gregory W. Huffman, 2000. "The dynamics of immigration policy with wealth-heterogeneous immigrants," Working Papers 0006, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Jim Dolmas & Gregory W. Huffman, 1998. "On the political economy of immigration and income redistribution," Working Papers 9804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Ortega, Francesc, 2005. "Immigration quotas and skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1841-1863, September.
    9. Hillman, Arye L. & Weiss, Avi, 1999. "A theory of permissible illegal immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 585-604, November.
    10. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1985. "International Trade and Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 691-707, September.
    11. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
    12. J. Amegashie, 2004. "A political economy model of immigration quotas," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 255-267, November.
    13. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Rodriguez, Carlos, 1975. "Welfare-theoretical analyses of the brain drain," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 195-221, September.
    14. Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Labor Market Competition And Individual Preferences Over Immigration Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 133-145, February.
    15. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-78, May.
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