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The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis

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Author Info
Essahbi Essaadi (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)
Jamel Jouini (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579, Université 7 Novembre de Carthage - université 7 Novembre de Carthage)
Wajih Khallouli () (Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - Université de Tunis)

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Abstract

In this paper we are testing for contagion caused by the Thai baht collapse of July 1997. In line with earlier work, shift-contagion is defined as a structural change within the international propagation mechanisms of financial shocks. We adopt Bai and Perron's (1998) structural break approach in order to detect the endogenous break points of the pair-wise time-varying correlations between Thailand and seven Asian stock market returns. Our approach enables us to solve the misspecification problem of the crisis window. Our results illustrate the existence of shift-contagion in the Asian crisis caused by the crisis in Thailand.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00404386_v1.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Publication status: Published, Panoeconomicus, 2009, 56, 2, 241-260
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00404386_v1

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Keywords: Shift-contagion; time-varying correlation; sequential selection procedure;

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  24. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Mohamed Ayadi & Riadh Boudhina & Wajih Khallouli & Rene Sandretto, 2006. "La contagion de la crise asiatique : dynamiques de court terme et de long terme," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 1Q, pages 113-134. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables : a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Post-Print halshs-00333582_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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