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Long-memory dynamics in a SETAR model - Applications to stock markets

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Author Info
Gilles Dufrénot (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579)
Dominique Guegan () (IDHE - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Economie - CNRS : UMR8533 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I - Université Paris VIII Vincennes-Saint Denis - Université de Paris X - Nanterre - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan)
Anne Peguin-Feissolle (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579)

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Abstract

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with a long-memory process in the first regime and a short-memory process in the second regime. We briefly introduce the properties of this model and methods for locating the threshold parameter are proposed. Such a process is applied to stock indices and individual asset prices. A comparison with simple FARIMA models is made using some forecastibility criteria.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00179339_v1.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published, International Financial Markets, Inst. And Money, 2005, 15, 391 - 406
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00179339_v1

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Related research
Keywords: SETAR - Long-memory - Stock indices - Forecasting.;

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  1. Dominique Guegan & Laurent Ferrara, 2005. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR models," Post-Print halshs-00201309_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Million, N., 2008. "Test simultané de la non-stationnarité et de la non-linéarité : une application au taux d.intérêt réel américain," Documents de Travail 201, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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